Pump prices across Europe jumped 5 – 10% in a single week after US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway that normally carries around 20% of the world's daily oil supply. Fuelconomy's real-time tracking of 52,000+ stations across five countries shows the sharpest week-on-week increases since the early days of the Ukraine war in 2022. For a driver filling a 50L tank twice a month, the surge already translates to roughly €10 – €15 extra per month – and the conflict is barely a week old.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, including operations in Tehran and parts of Lebanon. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all commercial shipping on 2 March.
The escalation went beyond threats. At least five tankers were damaged near the strait, two crew members killed, and over 150 ships were left stranded. Major shipping firms – including Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd – suspended all transits. Insurance companies withdrew coverage for the corridor almost immediately, which achieved what a naval blockade hadn't: a near-total halt in shipping traffic.
The crisis is compounded by drone strikes on Qatar's LNG export facilities, which forced QatarEnergy to halt production at the world's largest liquefied natural gas terminal. Combined with Houthi-controlled Yemen resuming attacks on Red Sea shipping, Europe faces a double chokepoint problem – the Strait of Hormuz in the east and the Suez Canal route disrupted in the west.
The wholesale price of diesel on the Frankfurt exchange surged more than 20% in a single day, jumping from $745 to $906 per ton between 27 February and 2 March – the highest level since October 2023. These wholesale spikes take roughly 3 – 7 days to arrive at the forecourt, meaning the full impact at the pump is still unfolding.
Here's how prices look right now across the countries Fuelconomy covers:
(Live data – updated twice daily from Fuelconomy's database)
Diesel has historically reacted more sharply to geopolitical shocks, and this crisis is no exception. In Germany, diesel briefly overtook petrol in price – an unusual inversion that the ADAC's fuel market expert attributes to diesel's higher sensitivity to supply disruptions. The pattern echoed 2022, when diesel prices surged roughly 60 cents in two weeks during the early weeks of the Ukraine conflict, while petrol moved by less than half that amount.
The reason is structural. Persian Gulf countries are major suppliers of refined diesel to Europe. With tankers unable to transit the strait and a fire at a major Saudi refinery caused by Iranian drone strikes, the diesel supply chain is under direct pressure. Meanwhile, EU sanctions on Russian petroleum products remain in place, eliminating another fallback source. The combination creates what analysts describe as a pincer squeeze on European diesel availability.
Watch out: If the strait remains closed for more than two weeks, some industry analysts estimate summer petrol shortages across Europe become increasingly probable as naphtha and octane blending components tighten.
French drivers saw Gazole prices climb roughly 10 cents per litre in a single week. In February, gasoline was averaging around €1.72 – €1.74/L; current prices are significantly higher. The cheapest stations in cities like Lyon and Toulouse still offer some relief compared to motorway stops, but the gap is narrowing fast. European natural gas stockpiles in France sit in the low 20% range – well below last year's levels – adding worry about winter heating costs if the crisis drags on.
Use Fuelconomy's live price map for France to find the cheapest E10 and Gazole near you before heading to the pump.
Gasolina 95 E5 jumped from approximately €1.48 – €1.50/L in February to around €1.58/L in early March – and that was before the full wholesale spike fed through. Industry groups warned prices could rise by as much as €0.30/L within days. Motorway stations and tourist areas in Barcelona and Madrid already charge premiums of €0.10 – €0.15/L over city stations; that gap will widen as wholesale costs rise. Spain's Ministry for Ecological Transition publishes official prices online, but cross-checking against Fuelconomy's real-time data from {[STATION_COUNT_spain]} Spanish stations gives a more granular picture.
Italy already carries some of Europe's highest fuel taxes, and the crisis compounds an already expensive market. Benzina rose from approximately €1.70 – €1.72/L in February to around €1.80/L by early March. Gasolio followed a similar trajectory. The well-documented Italian motorway premium – where Autogrill stations routinely charge €0.15 – €0.25/L more than local stations – means drivers in Rome, Milan, and Naples should avoid filling up on the autostrada whenever possible. A 5km detour off the highway can easily save €8 – €12 on a 50L fill-up.
The UK has its own complications. Petrol climbed to around 136p/L and diesel to roughly 146 – 147p/L in early March, with the RAC reporting sharp rises driven by the conflict. B7 diesel is particularly exposed because around 30% of Europe's jet fuel supply – which competes with diesel in the refining process – originates from or transits via the Strait of Hormuz. A truck stop owner at Junction 45 on the M6 told ITV he feared pumps could run dry if the situation persists. The UK government extended its 5p/L fuel duty cut until August 2026, but that cushion is being rapidly eroded by wholesale increases. Sterling weakness against the dollar amplifies the pain further, since oil is traded in USD.
Portugal typically offers somewhat lower prices than France or Italy, but the increase is just as noticeable in percentage terms. Gasóleo Simples and Gasolina Simples 95 have both climbed in line with the broader European trend. Drivers in Lisbon and Porto can check Fuelconomy's live widgets to find the cheapest options in their area – price differences of €0.15 – €0.20/L between stations in the same city are common even in normal times, and tend to widen during volatile periods.
The answer hinges on two factors: how quickly the strait reopens, and how long it takes for wholesale prices to stabilize.
Goldman Sachs has raised its second-quarter Brent forecast to $76/barrel assuming five more days of low exports followed by a gradual recovery. But they warn that five weeks of disruption could push oil to $100/barrel. BlackRock describes the current situation as a volatility shock with a 10 – 14-day buffer before energy markets face serious structural problems. If the conflict extends beyond a month – as President Trump has suggested is possible – the comparison point is not the 2025 Iran tensions but the 1970s oil embargo.
For European drivers, the realistic scenario breaks down roughly like this:
Key risk to watch: If EU sanctions on Russian petroleum products are informally relaxed – already estimated at a 30% probability by commodity analysts – it would signal just how severe the supply crunch has become.
You can't control Brent crude, but you can control where and when you fill up. The price spread between the cheapest and most expensive station in your area is always significant – and it grows during crises.
The current gap across countries tells the story:
(Live data)
On a 50L tank, the cheapest-to-most-expensive spread can easily represent €10 – €18 per fill-up. Over a year of biweekly fills, that adds up to €240 – €430 in potential savings – just from choosing the right station.
Practical steps that actually move the needle:
The Ukraine invasion in early 2022 pushed diesel prices up by roughly €0.60/L in two weeks across parts of Europe. But in that crisis, the Strait of Hormuz stayed open and Middle Eastern oil continued flowing. This time, the chokepoint itself is blocked, which analysts at RBC Capital Markets call one of the worst possible single-point-of-failure scenarios for global oil markets.
The potential silver lining: unlike 2022, there's political pressure on the US to resolve the conflict relatively quickly. The Trump administration faces midterm elections in November 2026 and sustained high energy prices undermine key political objectives around lowering inflation and interest rates. Many analysts therefore see a short, intense conflict followed by diplomatic resolution as the base case – but that's not guaranteed, and the Strait of Hormuz does not need to remain closed for long to cause lasting damage to European energy markets.
Pump prices across Europe have risen by approximately 5 – 10% in the first week of the conflict. Diesel in Germany broke €2/L, French and Italian prices jumped roughly €0.10/L, and Spain faces potential increases of up to €0.30/L. The full impact of wholesale increases hasn't reached forecourts yet – further rises are expected in the coming days.
Persian Gulf countries are major exporters of refined diesel to Europe. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly cuts off this supply, while EU sanctions on Russian-refined products eliminate an alternative. Diesel also reacts more sharply to geopolitical events historically – during the 2022 Ukraine crisis, diesel surged roughly twice as fast as petrol.
In the short term, physical shortages are unlikely in most of Western Europe. Strategic petroleum reserves across IEA member countries provide a buffer of several weeks. However, if the strait remains closed for over a month, localised shortages – particularly in diesel and jet fuel – become a realistic concern. Some UK industry figures have already expressed worry about supply continuity.
It depends entirely on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Goldman Sachs models suggest prices stabilise within weeks if shipping resumes relatively soon. If disruptions last 5+ weeks, oil could hit $100/barrel and pump prices could approach or exceed the 2022 peaks seen during the Ukraine crisis.
The single most effective action is comparing prices before every fill-up. Fuelconomy's network of 52,000+ stations across France, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, and Portugal is updated twice daily. Also avoid motorway stations, fill up during evening hours when prices tend to be lower, and don't panic-buy.
Commodity analysts estimate roughly a 30% chance that EU enforcement of sanctions on Russian-derived petroleum products could be informally relaxed if the disruption persists. Some cargoes of diesel refined from Russian crude in India have already cleared Mediterranean ports, suggesting enforcement flexibility is increasing under supply pressure.
Around 20% of global LNG supply transits the strait. European natural gas prices nearly doubled in 48 hours after the closure, with Dutch TTF futures hitting €56/MWh. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production after drone strikes on its facilities, removing a critical supply source for European buyers. Higher gas prices feed into electricity costs and heating bills, amplifying the impact beyond the pump.
(Updated: March 2026)
The Middle East crisis has created the most significant energy supply disruption since the Ukraine war – and for European motorists, the pain is only just arriving at the pump. Diesel drivers face the sharpest increases, but no fuel type is immune. The weeks ahead depend on geopolitics that no driver controls, but the price gap between the cheapest and most expensive station in your city hasn't disappeared – if anything, it's wider than usual.
Compare live prices across {[STATION_COUNT_france]} French, {[STATION_COUNT_spain]} Spanish, {[STATION_COUNT_italy]} Italian, and thousands more stations on Fuelconomy. In a crisis like this, the difference between checking prices and not checking can easily cost you €200+ over the coming months.
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